Superforecasting

The only popular book on prediction built on a pre-registered forecasting tournament with thousands of participants and scored results, showing that calibration is a trainable skill and that famous pundits are not good at it. Teaches thinking in probabilities rather than certainties, which is permanently useful.

The chapter guide

Better judgment comes from making precise, probabilistic forecasts, checking them against outcomes, and updating both the forecast and the thinking behind it with humility.

1. 1. An Optimistic Skeptic

   Forecasting has real limits, but ordinary people can improve short-range predictions through measured practice and a better style of thinking.

2. 2. Illusions of Knowledge

   Confidence and plausible stories can conceal ignorance, so reliable judgment requires doubt, testing, and awareness of what cannot be predicted.

3. 3. Keeping Score

   Forecasts must specify an outcome, deadline, and probability, then be scored across many cases to distinguish accuracy, calibration, and resolution.

4. 4. Superforecasters

   The Good Judgment Project shows that selected amateurs can produce unusually accurate, persistent forecasts when questions are clear and probabilities are repeatedly updated.

5. 5. Supersmart?

   Intelligence helps, but forecasting improves more through Fermi-style decomposition, base rates, targeted research, and synthesis of inside and outside views.

6. 6. Superquants?

   Good forecasters translate uncertainty into granular probabilities and distinguish what more information could reveal from what remains inherently unpredictable.

7. 7. Supernewsjunkies?

   Forecasts improve when new evidence is weighed against prior odds and updates are frequent, proportionate, and open to disconfirmation.

8. 8. Perpetual Beta

   Superforecasters inspect both successes and failures, update their beliefs, and keep improving through sustained, feedback-rich practice.

9. 9. Superteams

   Teams forecast better when members share evidence, challenge ideas constructively, ask precise questions, and aggregate independent perspectives without suppressing dissent.

10. 10. The Leader’s Dilemma

    Leaders can combine decisive action with probabilistic humility by making intent clear, decentralizing judgment, and rewarding candid updates.

11. 11. Are They Really So Super?

    Superforecasting has genuine short-range value even though luck, rare shocks, reflexive systems, and long time horizons impose hard limits.

12. 12. What’s Next?

    Forecasting improves when institutions demand precise questions, score predictions, learn from results, and connect small answerable questions to consequential larger ones.

13. Epilogue

    Bill Flack’s continued humility shows that even proven forecasters remain uncertain and responsive to future feedback.

14. An Invitation

    Readers are invited to test the method by joining a real forecasting community and making scored predictions.

15. Appendix: Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters

    The appendix compresses the book into practical rules for choosing questions, decomposing problems, balancing views and evidence, quantifying doubt, reviewing errors, collaborating, and practicing.

Scorecard

Universality

4 of 5

Evidence

5 of 5

Reread value

3 of 5